Scenario planning: how to navigate multiple crises

First came the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of deaths and the most traumatic disruption of supply chains in the modern era of globalization. Then came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the food and energy crises, and the return of rampant inflation. Only last  month, the US shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon over the waters of South Carolina – the latest snapshot in a real-life movie of rising US-China tensions. If you can conclude anything about the last three years, it is that they have brought upheaval and uncertainty on a level that few of today’s business leaders have ever witnessed. With no sign that these deeply unsettling trends will subside, one question looms large in the boardrooms of companies the world over: how do we plan for the future in an uncertain environment (especially the current one)?

Peter Schwartz, the internationally renowned futurist, business strategist, and currently a senior vice president of Strategic Planning for Salesforce, has…